McCain’s Knee-Jerk Reaction To A Successful Democratic Convention

One day after what even Pat Buchanan called the greatest acceptance speech ever, John McCain has tapped Gov. Sarah Palin for his running mate.

-First, it undermines his experience argument against Barack. Obama is known and the fact he has a thin resume is known. He has had time to rebut this argument with his argument on judgment for almost two years. For example, he was against the war when it was unpopular and foresaw the current problems. He was for sending more troops into Afghanistan. He was for bombing the Taliban on the Pakistan-Afghan border. He was for tough diplmacy with Iran and not saber rattling. Finally, he was for a timetable for Iraqi pullout. For all of these judgment calls Barack was called naive, and on all of these positions he has been proven right as the Bush administration has come around to his way of thinking.

Palin is currently under federal bi-partisan investigation for firing an Alaskan governmental employee and has not been vetted by the media. Sarah Palin is not known. Now she could be a heart beat away from the Presidency with the experience of being the mayor of a town of about 8 thousand and 18 months as Governor of a state with the population of Austin, Texas. Did I mention that’s the heart beat of a 72 year old, who has had skin cancer twice?

-Second, this pick was completely based on trying to get Hillary Clinton supporters and that can severely backfire. McCain seems to insult the intelligence of women who were supporting Hillary in that Palin is just interchangeable and that they will immediately vote for him because a woman is on the ticket. I don’t think that is so. Of course it is going to pull in those nut bag PUMAs who are just voting out of anger and nothing else, but Hillary’s other supporters, who only want to see Hillary as the first female President, are going to be insulted by this.

Now on policy - She doesn’t believe in abortion rights, even in cases of rape or incest. She is against gay rights. She has admitted she doesn’t know what the Vice President does. She admitted she has paid little attention to the Iraq War and does not have a clear position. She doesn’t believe in man-made global warming. She doesn’t want the Polar Bear on the endangered species list (probably based on what she thinks of global warming). She wants to drill in ANWR, which McCain and many others disagree with. She was FOR the bridge to nowhere two years ago and now is apparently claiming she was AGAINST it. She is even open to allowing public schools to teach Creationism (a non-science that will harm our children’s educations and is meant to bend the separation of church and state).

This woman is as right-wing as they come in a political atmosphere hurting from Bush and yearning for change. In 2000 she even supported Pat Buchanan, who is as right as Rush Limbaugh, over George W. Bush. Once the hoorah is over about her bringing something new to the ticket her policies will only send independents, who will decide this election, away from McCain. They want to label her as a “maverick,” but she is yet to be defined and, from what I’m watching on all the news channels today, it isn’t starting out on the right foot. Democrats are lacing into her resume and pointing out how this choice undermines the whole argument McCain has put forward on Obama not being ready to lead. Republicans seem to have a response of she has more experience then Obama, which has been getting severe push-back from commentators, and not those on just left-leaning MSNBC, but on the more down the middle CNN also. Furthermore, Palin beefs up Obama’s judgment argument. On the first big decision of a nominee, Obama chose a man with deep experience, who could step in on day one. McCain, however, has chosen a running mate that absolutely can not.

Thank you John McCain for making this election easier.

Some initial numbers on Palin from FiveThirtyEight.com - The results are a surprise…basically men are more inclined to vote more for McCain b/c of the pick, while women are way more skeptical of her competence….initial numbers seem to be her effect as a wash that slightly leans in McCain’s favor, which is about a 2 point bounce, while Obama’s pick of Biden got 0 bounce. They also show how moderates (the independents who decide elections) have a negative view of her choice.

Women View Palin More Skeptically than Men

According to fresh data from Rasmussen Reports, Sarah Palin’s selection is a mixed bag. Voters have a favorable impression of her by a 53/26 margin; however, by a 29/44 margin, they do not believe that she is ready to be President. Needless to say, the PR battle over the next couple of weeks will involve the McCain campaign playing up her biography, and the Obama campaign playing down her readiness.

At this stage, it is not clear how impactful her selection will be: 35 percent of voters say they’re more likely to vote for McCain with Palin on the ticket, and 33 percent say they’re less likely. Indeed, among voters already committed to one or the other candidate, her choice would seem to do little bit entrench partisan feelings: just 6 percent of McCain voters say they’re less likely to vote for McCain with Palin on the ticket, while just 9 percent of Obama voters say they’re more so. (To see how Joe Biden’s numbers compared — see here. As might be expected, Biden scored better on readiness and worse on personal favorables, with the other numbers being about the same).

What’s interesting, however, is that while there is a gender gap in these numbers, it’s not the one many observers were anticipating. Rather, along a variety of metrics, men like the Palin choice better than women:

These numbers pretty much speak for themselves, but men have a favorable impression of Palin by a 35-point margin, whereas women have a favorable impression of her by an 18-point margin. Conversely, by a 23-point margin, women do not think Palin is ready to be President, whereas Palin lost this question among men by a considerably smaller 6-point margin.

Why does this gap exist? Don’t know, but it may simply be a matter of ideology. Men are generally a bit more conservative than women, and opinions of Palin are very strongly determined by ideology. Conservatives have a favorable impression of her by a 79-8 margin, but this falls to 43-35 among moderates and 26-46 among liberals. Likewise, by a 48-22 margin, conservatives think she’s ready to be President, but she loses this question 23-54 among moderates and 9-67 among liberals.

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